The Changing War in Ukraine - The U.S. Aid Freeze, Momentum & how the War has changed in 2025

Sponsored by Ground News: Compare news coverage. Spot media bias. Avoid algorithms. Try Ground News today and get 40% off your subscription by going to https://ground.news/perun Most of the time, major international developments and policy changes are slow and incremental. Sometimes, they are dramatic and sudden. Over the course of the last few months US foreign policy has shifted significantly - and with it, the balance in Ukraine. This episode I look at the evolution of the war since our last quarterly update to set a baseline for what to expect as negotiations and policy decisions play out - and start to introduce some of the major changes we've already seen, from the US aid freeze to escalating European commitments. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Reading and Sourcing: Territorial control maps per https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1290000/37.7624000 Territorial change to end Jan per @war_mapper - https://x.com/War_Mapper?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor France on intel sharing - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-offering-intelligence-ukraine-amid-washington-suspension-2025-03-06/ Additional European aid pledges - https://kyivindependent.com/eu-members-pledge-16-billion-in-additional-support-for-ukraine-costa-says/ CSIS - Calculating the cost effectiveness of Russia's strikes https://www.csis.org/analysis/calculating-cost-effectiveness-russias-drone-strikes RUSI - Russian and allied capabilities in modern strike campaign https://static.rusi.org/russian-and-allied-capabilities-modern-strike-campaign-feb-2025-rusi.pdf Glide bomb jamming claims (ref to Russian source within) https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-glide-bombs-are-no-longer-precise-ukraines-ew-jamming-sends-them-astray-6279 https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/02/26/ukraine-is-jamming-russian-glide-bombs-all-along-the-front-line-erasing-one-of-russias-main-battlefield-advantages/ Trump on Ukraine being more difficult to deal with than Russia https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crknjxj3n4zo Gerbera drones https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crknjxj3n4zo Hegseth remarks on the need for European and non-European troops in Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/4064113/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-at-ukraine-defense-contact/ Russia "Rules out any options for European peacekeepers in Ukraine" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-rules-out-any-options-european-peacekeepers-ukraine-2025-02-26/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/25/kremlin-disputes-trump-claim-russia-would-accept-peacekeeping-troops-in-ukraine Russian MFA comments on potential ceasefire https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/06/temporary-ukraine-ceasefire-unacceptable-russian-mfa-spokeswoman-says-a88277 Kellogg on intel sharing and hitting a donkey with a 2x4 https://apnews.com/article/trump-zelenskyy-kellogg-ukraine-intelligence-sharing-c5da1604549a8f5744a65f4ae581b3e4 Polish minister on Starlink in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/polish-official-warns-of-international-crisis-between-poland-us-if-ukraine-cut-from-starlink/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/tech/news/polish-digital-minister-warns-of-big-international-crisis-if-musk-cuts-ukraines-starlink-access/ Reporting on intel sharing freeze https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-cia-zelenskyy-5eb2c8025f6bb4b616c86e1fe89bba0f Reporting on Senator Lankford & potential cuts at US munitions plant https://kfor.com/news/oklahoma-legislature/lankford-weighs-in-on-doge-voicing-concerns-on-certain-actions/ https://mil.in.ua/en/news/doge-to-cut-1-000-jobs-at-largest-u-s-army-ammunition-plant/ Glide bomb reporting https://kyivindependent.com/russias-primitive-glide-bombs-are-still-outmatching-ukraines-air-defenses-killing-more-civilians-2/ Caveats & Comments: All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions. Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character. Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on. Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:02 — What Am I Talking About? 00:03:09 — Objectives & Background 00:04:44 — the Battlefield 00:16:20 — Driving Factors 00:24:31 — Military Reform 00:37:10 — the Drone Campaign 00:47:53 — the Outlook 00:54:42 — the Now 01:02:31 — Channel Update