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17 Dec: From 8:1 to 2:1: How Ukraine Balanced the Artillery Scales | War in Ukraine Explained

🔴 Support our Channel Today and Get a 40% Discount on Exclusive Videos: https://www.rfunews.com/christmas-sale In this strategic update, we analyze the Ukrainian strikes on large Russian ammunition depots throughout 2024 and what immediate effects these strikes brought to the frontline in terms of artillery availability. These crucial actions are part of a sustained strategy that has the potential to turn into one of the most strategically important factors in the overall strategy of the war. As you may recall, the first part of the year was characterized by attacks on ammunition depots primarily within Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory, with the most significant strikes occurring in the Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions in January, March, and May, respectively. This situation changed dramatically after the summer, once Ukraine began deploying its new domestically developed long-range weaponry, and obtained limited permission to use Western weaponry on Russian soil. Since late September, significant attacks have targeted major ammunition depots on Russian soil within the range of Ukraine's available armaments. Ukrainian forces specifically struck the ammunition depots at Oktyabrskii and Toropets in the Tver Oblast, as well as the Tikhoretsk depot in Krasnodar Krai, in September 2024. In addition, on October 8, they attacked a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast. The attack on the Toropets depot was particularly significant, with an estimated destruction of 30,000 tons of ammunition, the equivalent of approximately three months of Russian artillery production. Images of this action spread worldwide, and the explosion is considered the most powerful non-nuclear detonation in history. Collectively, these attacks are estimated to have destroyed at least 75,000 tons of Russian ammunition, or nearly a quarter of all Russian production and North Korean deliveries this year combined. These sustained attacks throughout the second half of 2024 have already had a direct impact on the availability of Russian artillery ammunition on the battlefield, with numerous Russian soldiers reporting on the situation. According to statements by a prominent Russian military analyst, restrictions on the daily use of shells were imposed at the end of September along the entire front, as a result of the attacks on Toropets and Tikhoretsk. He further noted that these restrictions had had a direct impact on the frontline as the imposed limits made it difficult to properly carry out assault operations. In this context, Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Defense, Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk, recently provided more detailed data on the effects of Ukrainian operations. He revealed that the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian artillery fire is now approximately two to one in favor of Russian forces, a significant reduction from eight to one at the beginning of 2024 and three to one by the start of summer 2024. These Ukrainian attacks have had a notable strategic impact on Russian offensive efforts for the following reasons. Firstly, the destruction of these major storage centers results in an immediate reduction in the availability of artillery rounds that can be supplied to the frontlines in the short term, forcing smaller storage facilities, closer to the combat zones, to ration their supplies until resupply lines are restored. Secondly, these attacks force the Russian command to relocate ammunition from remaining depots now within Ukrainian strike range to more distant and dispersed locations, creating delays and logistical challenges in supplying frontline units. Thirdly, it obliges to divide newly produced artillery ammunition between immediate battlefield use and replenishing the depleted strategic reserves that must be maintained according to Russian military doctrine. Finally, Russia increasingly faces the need to resort to artillery ammunition from third-party countries like North Korea or to poorly maintained Soviet-era stockpiles. Both cases require a slow refurbishment process, which ultimately results in higher rates of inaccuracy and misfires. This significant shift in trends is directly influencing changes in Russian battlefield tactics. The reduced availability of artillery has made it increasingly difficult for Russian offensives to be preceded by massive preparatory bombardments, allowing Ukrainian forces to preserve a much larger proportion of their defensive strength. Over recent months, Russian tactics have shifted increasingly toward small infantry group tactics with little or no fire support due to a shortage of artillery ammunition. This has inevitably led to record-high casualty figures in recent weeks, with November estimated to have the highest monthly casualties since the war began: over 45,000, according to various military analysts. These figures are deemed unsustainable and are expected to lead to the culmination of Russian offensive efforts...

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